With one month remaining before the November midterm elections, President Donald Trump faces disapproval in 39 states, including every major battleground, as highlighted by recent polling data. The data stems from Civiqs’ rolling online tracker, which gathered insights from 133,869 registered voters between January 20, 2025, and October 2, 2026. Newsweek’s analysis compares the latest state ratings with those at the beginning of Trump’s second term. His net approval is calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval.
National Overview
Currently, 34 percent of voters approve of Trump’s performance, while 60 percent disapprove, resulting in a net approval rating of -26.
Key Points
- Major battleground states reflect negative sentiment. Georgia stands at -25, Michigan and Nevada at -24, and Pennsylvania at -22.
- Kentucky shows the largest decline, dropping 33 points from a +23 to -10 since January 2025.
- Trump’s highest approval is in Wyoming, at +18, followed by North Dakota at +15.
Younger voters, independents, and those with postgraduate degrees are notably opposed to Trump.
Implications for Midterms
Presidential approval ratings do not directly predict election outcomes, but they shape the competitive environment for candidates. With the control of Congress at stake, Trump’s poor ratings may influence voter turnout, campaign strategies, and close races in contested states.
Explore the map below to examine Trump’s net approval rating across states, one month ahead of the midterms.
Approval Trends in States
Trump maintains positive ratings in 10 states, predominantly Republican strongholds.
- Wyoming shows +18, North Dakota +15, and West Virginia +12.
- Arkansas records +9, Idaho +8, and Alabama +6.
- South Dakota is at +5, Oklahoma at +4, Kansas at +3, and Utah at +2.
Montana is evenly split, with both 46 percent approval and disapproval.
Even in these positive states, Trump’s approval has declined since January 2025. For instance, Wyoming’s approval dropped from +47 to +18.
Demographic Insights
Analyzing the national demographic data sheds light on state-level trends:
- Among voters aged 18-34, only 20 percent approve of Trump, while 73 percent disapprove.
- Voters aged 35-49 show 26 percent approval and 66 percent disapproval.
- Older voters are less negative; those aged 50-64 have a 44 percent approval rate, and those 65 and older also stand at 44 percent.
Among independents, disapproval stands at 65 percent compared to 27 percent approval. Republican supporters show higher approval rates with 78 percent approving. Female voters disapprove by a margin of 65 to 29 percent, while male voters disapprove by 54 to 39 percent.
Education further divides opinion. Approval ratings are 24 percent among postgraduates, 32 percent among college graduates, and 37 percent among non-college graduates; however, disapproval rates exceed approval in all categories.
Disapproval by racial groups shows 90 percent of Black voters, 70 percent of Hispanic voters, and 52 percent of white voters disapprove of Trump.
Battleground States Analysis
Trump’s net ratings in key battleground states remain negative:
- Arizona: -18
- Florida: -16
- Georgia: -25
- Michigan: -24
- Nevada: -24
- North Carolina: -15
- Ohio: -17
- Pennsylvania: -22
- Wisconsin: -18
Several of these states have shifted from previous positive ratings at the start of Trump’s term, reflecting a challenging landscape for the upcoming midterms.
States with Largest Drops in Approval
Notable declines in Trump’s net approval since January 2025 include:
- Kentucky: +23 to -10, down 33 points
- Wyoming: +47 to +18, down 29 points
- Oklahoma: +31 to +4, down 27 points
- Tennessee: +25 to -2, down 27 points
- Texas: +6 to -21, down 27 points
- Idaho: +34 to +8, down 26 points
- Alaska: +9 to -6, down 25 points
- Ohio: +8 to -17, down 25 points
- Florida: +9 to -16, down 25 points
- Montana: +25 to 0, down 25 points
- Nevada: 0 to -24, down 24 points
The largest changes often occurred in states where Trump enjoyed initial favorable ratings.
Deep Blue States
Trump’s weakest ratings remain in strongly Democratic territories.
- Hawaii: -58
- Maryland: -52
- Vermont: -51
- California and Massachusetts: -47
- Connecticut: -46
- Washington: -42
- New York: -39
- Oregon and Rhode Island: -38
The shifts in these states are less pronounced as opposition was already high when Trump began his term.
White House Reaction
The White House has minimized the impact of opinion polls, citing Trump’s 2024 election win as the definitive measure of public support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle points to nearly 80 million votes for Trump as a mandate for the administration’s agenda.
Ingle has stated that Trump focuses on job creation, reducing inflation, and enhancing housing affordability. The White House insists the administration has achieved “historic progress” and views current initiatives as the start of further advancements.
Newsweek sought additional comments from the White House on Friday morning.