In a recent poll, Democrat Annie Andrews is trailing Republican Senator Darline Graham by a single point in the South Carolina Senate race. This poll, published Friday, reflects Democrats’ interest in potentially gaining a Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Although South Carolina has been a consistently conservative state, backing President Donald Trump by nearly 18 points in the 2024 presidential election, shifting approval ratings suggest a changing landscape.
As Trump’s nationwide approval declines, Democrats aim to broaden the Senate map for the November 3 election. Alongside South Carolina, they target traditional Republican territories such as Kansas and Mississippi, as well as established battleground states including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
Current Polling Data
Senator Darline Graham, appointed following her brother Lindsey Graham’s death, secured her party’s nomination with Trump’s endorsement. In the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters, 46 percent favored Graham, while 45 percent planned to support Andrews. The survey, conducted between September 28 and 29, 2026, indicated a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Additional candidates received 5 percent support, with 4 percent undecided.
Previous South Carolina polls have shown tight races despite past Democratic disappointments, including in 2020 when Senator Lindsey Graham outpaced Democrat Jaime Harrison by a substantial margin.
Comparing Recent Polls
Other polls reinforce Graham’s slight edge. A recent Trafalgar Group poll showed Graham at 43 percent and Andrews at 42 percent, within the margin of error. This survey of 1,087 likely voters happened between September 23 and 25. Another InsiderAdvantage poll conducted earlier this month showed Graham ahead by 2 points, again within the margin of error. These results mark a shift from 2024 when Trump secured 58 percent against Kamala Harris’ 40 percent in South Carolina.
Nationwide, Democrats are gaining traction. A YouGov and The Economist survey found Democrats with a 15-point lead over Republicans on a generic ballot amongst likely voters.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite polling showing a close contest, South Carolina remains challenging for Democrats. Historically, South Carolina last favored a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976 with Jimmy Carter, and it has favored Republicans by significant margins in recent elections.
The state does have a large Democratic-leaning Black voter population, and cities like Charleston and Columbia exhibit more Democratic support. However, rural areas, suburbs, and racial polarization create GOP advantages. Nonetheless, Democrats sense an opportunity arising from national issues affecting Republican prospects.
Future Prospects
While forecasts currently favor Graham, with The Cook Political Report marking the race as Likely Republican and Sabato’s Crystal Ball viewing it as Safe Republican, rising voter engagement will influence outcomes. Observers will continue to scrutinize polls as the midterms approach.
Voter Information in South Carolina
Important voter registration deadlines include October 2 at 5 p.m. for in-person registration, October 4 at 11:59 p.m. for online, fax, or email registration, and October 5 for mail postmarked registration. Early voting is available from October 19 to 31. Registered voters can utilize early voting centers, with October 23 as the deadline to request an absentee ballot.