The race for control of Congress is reaching a crucial stage. Republicans and Democrats are gearing up to find out who will dominate the final years of President Donald Trump’s term.
Recent Fox News Power Rankings show House Democrats leading with a projection of winning 215 seats, while Republicans are close behind with 201. However, 19 seats remain categorized as toss-ups, indicating that the outcome is uncertain.
Democratic Challenges and Republican Opportunities
One factor providing Republicans with some optimism is the influence of the far-left faction in the Democratic Party. The emergence of socialist candidates has sparked concerns that this could shift the party further than many Americans prefer, providing Republican candidates a rallying point nationwide.
Below are ten House districts currently in Democratic hands, where Republicans may secure victories critical to maintaining control:
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., is contending in a district recently reconfigured to favor Republicans significantly. Following a 2023 Supreme Court ruling, Alabama was instructed to create a district enhancing Black voter influence, helping Figures win his seat. Yet, a recent ruling diminished the Voting Rights Act, leading to district adjustments possibly affecting Figures’ re-election bid.
Florida’s 9th Congressional District
Lawmakers in Florida redrew the map, aiming to strengthen Republican positioning. Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., impacted heavily, now faces a district favoring Trump by nearly 18%. Both power rankings suggest it’s leaning towards Republicans.
Florida’s 14th Congressional District
The Tampa seat held by Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., has been redrawn for competitiveness. Castor faces Republican Mike Beltran, a known local figure. New district lines indicate a Trump advantage, labeling it a toss-up
according to rankings.
Florida’s 22nd Congressional District
Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz avoided an internecine face-off here. With Rep. Lois Frankel D-Fla., retiring, the seat is open, and newcomer Pia Dandiya faces Republican Casey Askar. Rankings categorize the district as a toss-up.
Florida’s 25th Congressional District
Rep. Jared Moskowitz competes in this district after redistricting favored Republicans slightly. Historical bipartisan work credits provide Moskowitz some leverage against political shifts. Projections show varied outcomes, leaning Democrat or as a toss-up.
Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District
Following Supreme Court decisions affecting voting district lines, Louisiana’s 6th, now less influenced by Black voters, presents Republicans with a likely win. Gov. Jeff Landry has delayed elections due to recent legal changes, with rankings leaning Republican.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Jared Golden’s departure grants Republicans a rare chance in the Northeast. With a potential candidate like former Gov. Paul LePage, the district shows promise for Republicans. Power rankings list it as a toss-up
or likely GOP win.
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., faces increased competition after redistricting swayed Trump margins. Running against Laurie Buckhout, whom Davis edged out in 2024, the district remains highly contested, labeled as a toss-up
or leaning Republican.
Texas’ 35th Congressional District
With Greg Casar moving to another district, this open race offers opportunities for both parties. Trump support in redrawn lines makes Republican victory plausible depending on Hispanic voter trends. Projections slightly favor Republicans.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
Rep. Marcy Kaptur faces a tougher re-election in a district realigned to incorporate more Republican areas. Historically resilient despite redistricting attempts, Kaptur’s challenge persists. Ratings classify it as a toss-up.
Fox News’ Remy Numa contributed to this report. For further updates, follow reporter Elizabeth Elkind on Twitter at @liz_elkind.