A recent Marist poll reveals Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate election. This competitive race mirrors the conditions during Democrats’ last statewide Senate win 18 years ago.
The poll, released Tuesday, shows Turek with 50% support from registered voters in Iowa, while Hinson garners 42%. The survey included 1,050 registered voters contacted via phone, text, or online between September 17 and 20.
The candidates aim to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst in a race with implications for the U.S. Senate’s control. Prior to the poll’s release, Hinson broke from President Trump, endorsing an end to the Iran war on Monday, despite Trump’s endorsement of Hinson last year.
Democrats last won a Senate election in Iowa 18 years ago, when Tom Harkin defeated Republican Christopher Reed. Since then, Ernst and Republican Chuck Grassley have held Iowa’s Senate seats.
This year’s midterm elections may shift control of Congress as Republicans contend with public concerns about the economy, inflation, fuel costs, and the Iran war. Though Iowa has leaned Republican in Senate elections since 2008, it has also supported presidential candidates from both parties.
Trump won the last three Iowa presidential elections, whereas Obama had previously won twice. On Tuesday, Polymarket labeled the Iowa election a toss-up based on Turek’s 48% chance of winning.
Newsweek sought comment from Turek and Hinson’s campaigns for further insight.
Comparing the 2026 Midterm to Harkin’s 2008 Victory
The current political landscape in Iowa reflects similarities to 2008, particularly in economic anxiety affecting both Iowa and the U.S. Concerns then mainly revolved around the financial crisis, whereas today’s economic worries revolve around increasing costs.
Iowa farmers face challenges from tariffs, the Iran war, and fuel costs. Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Drew Myers criticized Hinson’s actions and voting record regarding the Iran war, linking her choices to increasing costs for constituents.
In response to political pressure, Hinson urged an immediate end to the Iran war through her post on X, proposing solutions like suspending the gas tax and creating relief programs.
Turek countered Hinson’s post, stressing her voting record and the need to prioritize Iowa over endless wars.
Differences between 2008 and Today
While comparisons between 2008 and the current election hold, key differences exist. The Iran conflict does not involve ground troops like the Iraq war. Additionally, Harkin was an experienced incumbent in 2008, whereas this contest involves an open seat.
What’s Next for Iowa
Upcoming polls may further illuminate Turek’s lead as shown by Marist, determining whether it’s sustainable. Campaign activities are expected to intensify, with the election on November 3 drawing near.
Iowa stands as one of this cycle’s most competitive midterm races.
Newsweek’s story was produced with the assistance of Martyn, our AI tool. Contact editors Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas for more details.