The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on Monday that a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean, located east of the United States, has a growing chance of evolving into a tropical storm within the next seven days. This update comes amidst an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, which is yet to produce a hurricane this year. The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will continue until November 30.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted a below-average season for the Atlantic, predicting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. So far, there have been five tropical storms, with the latest being Tropical Storm Edouard, forming on August 31. A key factor in the slow season is the emergence of El Niño. This climate pattern, marked by warmer sea temperatures and weakened trade winds in the tropical Pacific, typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, which can break up developing storms.
El Niño is expected to strengthen through the end of the year, with over a 90 percent chance of becoming ‘very strong’ during the fall and winter. While its effects in the U.S. are most pronounced during the colder months, El Niño influences both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. It tends to increase hurricane activity in the Pacific due to warmer waters and decreased wind shear. However, the current calm in the Atlantic might change. Meteorologists from the NHC are monitoring a new disturbance near Bermuda, which could develop into a tropical storm.
The NHC stated, “Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of this week. A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly off to the west-northwest over the subtropical Atlantic.”
The disturbance has a 40 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next seven days, according to the latest forecast. As of Monday afternoon, the disturbance was positioned 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and was generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Meteorologists from AccuWeather predict that a storm might form between September 17 and 21. Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno noted, “This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere. Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm.”
Wind shear continues across much of the Atlantic, but it is less pronounced near Bermuda, suggesting that wind shear might not interfere with the storm’s development. The next storm will be named Fay if it forms. Presently, there are no tropical storm watches or warnings. The NHC will persist in observing the situation and releasing updates as needed. Despite the below-average forecast for this year’s hurricane season, experts stress that a single storm can still have significant consequences. Residents in vulnerable areas should stay informed through local weather updates and be prepared for potential impacts.