For the first time in recorded history, the global population of people aged 65 and older has outstripped the number of children aged 5 and under. This marked a demographic tipping point, as noted in a recent report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The milestone was achieved in 2023, arriving sooner than predicted due to decreasing birth rates and increased life expectancies.
The shift in demographics signals potential economic and social challenges. Governments may grapple with shrinking workforces and rising dependency ratios. However, population aging also highlights humanity’s success in extending life expectancy and improving survival rates.
More than 71 percent of the world’s population resided in nations with fertility rates at or below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman in 2023, up from 45 percent in 2013.
Countries like China and India, which account for significant portions of the global population, now have fertility rates below replacement level. Other nations, including Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam, have reached this threshold since 2013. At the same time, longevity is increasing. Projections indicate the global population aged 65 and older will more than double by 2060, expected to make up nearly one-fifth of humanity.
This growing number of seniors will impact labor markets, healthcare systems, and pension programs. A declining number of younger people might mean fewer workers to support older populations, putting greater strain on social welfare systems and long-term care facilities.
Countries are implementing various social pension schemes to address old age poverty, though demand often exceeds supply. Informal care by family members, predominantly women, remains crucial, even in nations with strong infrastructure for seniors.
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted these issues, as many older adults faced job losses and lacked access to healthcare and social services. Isolation due to limited digital connectivity and exposure to extreme weather conditions further worsened the situation.
Global Demographic Shifts
The transformation extends beyond Europe and North America. Asia anticipates the most significant numerical rise in older adults. Its senior population is projected to increase from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion by 2060. Though Africa remains the world’s youngest region, it is also expected to see its elderly population more than quadruple during this period.
The United States mirrors this trend. Census Bureau estimates predict that Americans aged 65 and older will make up 18.9 percent of the population in 2025, rising to 23.4 percent by 2060. Overall, the U.S. population is forecast to grow from 344 million in 2025 to 404 million in 2060.