The second round of the PGA TOUR’s 2026 FedExCup Playoffs is taking place at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, for the BMW Championship. After the BMW, the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings will advance to East Lake for the TOUR Championship. Bellerive, a long par-70 course stretching 7,448 yards, features bentgrass greens and has hosted several major tournaments, including the 2018 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka. With rain expected to soften the course, birdies should abound, and success will come from excellent driving and precise iron play.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler secured his second win of the year last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, dominating the field by eight strokes — the only player to finish double digits under par. This victory was his first since the 2026 season opener.
Betting Picks Without Scottie Scheffler
Considering Scottie’s performance, betting in the ‘Winner without Scottie Scheffler’ markets could be wise. Winning both the BMW and TOUR Championship seems plausible, but betting him at +300 or lower doesn’t appeal. Instead, here are my picks for the tournament:
- 🇺🇸 Chris Gotterup: +3000 (0.67 units) and Top-10 with ties +189 (0.75 units) at Kalshi
- 🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama: +3000 at FanDuel (0.67 units) and Top-10 with ties +198 at Kalshi (0.75 units)
- 🇺🇸 Collin Morikawa: +3800 at DraftKings (0.53 units) and Top-10 with ties +265 at Kalshi (0.5 units)
- 🇺🇸 Michael Thorbjornsen: +5500 at BetMGM (0.36 units) and Top-10 with ties +312 (0.5 units) at Kalshi
Chris Gotterup
Gotterup’s recent win at the John Deere Classic, another Midwest venue with bentgrass greens, adds to victories at the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open. His game travels well, and he ranks fifth in my model ahead of players like Si Woo Kim and Tommy Fleetwood. Gotterup’s performance at Bellerive should benefit from his strong driving, ranking second in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 24 rounds.
Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama has continuously finished T14 or better in his last six outings, including a T7 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. With the likelihood of rain and softer courses, Matsuyama’s field-leading birdie-or-better rate over the last 24 rounds makes him a valuable contender. Despite being 31st in short-game metrics, Matsuyama’s ball-striking ability remains a predictive strength.
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa’s odds are higher than expected for a player of his caliber. As the leader in Strokes Gained: Approach this season and 10th in driving accuracy, Morikawa stands out. He has demonstrated success on driver-heavy courses like Augusta and possesses a strong game on bentgrass greens. His ability to compete with top players such as Scheffler makes him an attractive option.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Thorbjornsen has attracted smart money with finishes that include a win at the Rocket Classic. His overall performance — gaining strokes in driving, approach, chipping, and putting over the last 24 rounds — suggests that Bellerive fits his game. His ascent in the professional world aligns with the course’s demands.
2026 BMW Championship ‘One-and-Done’ Pick: Chris Gotterup
Mayo Cup season standings: 4,386th with $6,003,249
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