Five years ago, Baltimore faced a severe homicide crisis, losing over 300 residents each year to violence. Today, the city reports a significant decrease of approximately 60 percent in homicides and nonfatal shootings. Since September 2022, the homicide rate in Baltimore has steadily declined. By 2025, the city recorded only 133 homicides, marking the lowest in nearly five decades.
A recent working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research highlights that Baltimore’s crime reduction efforts surpassed those in other cities by about 25 percent, achieving this with no corresponding rise in arrests. This transformation did not happen by chance, and it was a departure from past enforcement-focused tactics.
For years, Baltimore attempted to reduce violence through mass arrests. At the peak of zero-tolerance policing, approximately 100,000 arrests were made annually in a city of roughly 600,000 residents. This approach eroded public trust and failed to reduce crime. While enforcement remains a part of public safety, indiscriminate arrests were harmful, especially in non-white communities, without much effect on violent crime.
New Approach to Violence Reduction
In 2022, Baltimore adopted a new strategy, prioritizing violence reduction and targeting a small number of individuals, groups, and places associated with most violent acts. Data revealed that less than 2 percent of residents were linked to nearly three-fourths of violent crimes. This insight redirected efforts from broad enforcement to focusing on key offenders.
The Group Violence Reduction Strategy began with direct outreach, led by trusted community figures. The approach involves offering genuine help, like life coaching, job training, and housing, to those willing to change, while holding perpetrators accountable. Police and justice partners work collaboratively to ensure accountability and support.
Additionally, Baltimore built a service network to reach those previously noticed only through enforcement. This integrated method of focus, support, and accountability showed substantial results. In the Western District—the initial area of implementation—homicides and nonfatal shootings dropped by about one-third within the first 18 months. There was no increase in low-level arrests or crime displacement to nearby areas.
Of those who received support, over 94 percent have not become victims again. While past attempts failed due to poor execution, this time Baltimore committed to a five-year timeline, expanding carefully district by district. This disciplined, well-managed approach, despite criticism for slow progress, focused on sustainable outcomes.
Collaborative Efforts and Outcomes
No single agency can tackle violence alone. Weekly meetings involving police, prosecutors, community workers, and city agencies review incidents, anticipate risks, and coordinate actions. Community involvement is crucial, as those closest to the problem are key to its solution.
Research across cities supports that focused, partnership-based strategies succeed when managed effectively beyond short political terms. Baltimore’s goal is to reduce violence while reducing harm to the community, combining accountability with support. Enforcement focuses on key offenders, not entire neighborhoods, with community voices central to the strategy.
The impact is evident: families feel safer, youth receive necessary support, and revitalized blocks attract new businesses. Although challenges remain and one life lost is too many, Baltimore’s progress illustrates the power of consistent focus, evidence-based strategies, and collaboration in solving difficult problems.
Brandon M. Scott, the 52nd mayor of Baltimore, has led these efforts, achieving historic violence reductions and promoting investment in education, recreation, parks, and affordable housing. Anthony A. Braga, Ph.D., the Jerry Lee Professor of Criminology at the University of Pennsylvania, contributed to this progress.
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