In a recent poll, Democrat Brian Poindexter leads his Republican opponent, Representative Max Miller, in Ohio’s 7th District. The district, which includes suburban and rural areas near Cleveland, strongly supported former President Donald Trump but now shows Poindexter ahead by 8 points.
Miller remains in the race despite facing serious allegations of abuse from his ex-wife, Emily Moreno. She accuses him of violent actions, including threatening her with a firearm and physical assault. Extensive media coverage has highlighted these claims.
Miller denies all allegations. His spokesperson argues that the courts still grant him joint custody of his child, suggesting the accusations lack credibility. Nevertheless, these allegations have significantly impacted Miller’s campaign, with Democrats seeing an opportunity to turn the seat blue in the upcoming election.
Poll Results
The poll, conducted by Tavern Research, indicates that 54% support Poindexter, while 46% back Miller. Miller’s unfavorable rating stands at 50%, reflecting the public’s reaction to the allegations. Additionally, a co/efficient poll shows Poindexter with an even larger 47% to 33% lead, with many voters reporting they are less likely to support Miller due to the accusations.
Poll analysts now consider the race a toss-up, a shift from previously favoring Miller. Experts mention the allegations as key factors making the district competitive for Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee supports Poindexter as part of their “Red to Blue” program, focusing on flipping Republican seats.
Market Predictions
Prediction markets favor Poindexter, giving him an 80% chance of winning. These markets reflect trader sentiment based on polls, fundraising, and political developments.
Calls for Withdrawal
Several Republicans have urged Miller to leave the race, citing the allegations as damaging. Senator Jon Husted, among others, stated that domestic violence allegations disqualify a candidate from Congress. Still, former President Trump has opted not to intervene, describing the situation as “very sad.”
Impact on House Control
Miller’s choice to remain in the race makes Ohio’s 7th District a crucial battleground in upcoming elections. Currently, Republicans hold a slight majority in the House. Democrats see Ohio’s 7th as one of several seats they could flip to gain control. They have strong odds, with prediction markets showing high chances of regaining the majority.