In the New York gubernatorial race, Republican Bruce Blakeman is narrowing the gap with Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, as indicated by a new Siena University poll released on Wednesday.
Historically, New York has been considered a stronghold for the Democratic Party, but recent electoral trends have seen Democrats’ margins decrease. Former Vice President Kamala Harris saw a reduced victory margin in the state, winning by fewer than 13 points compared to former President Joe Biden’s 23-point margin in 2020. Similarly, Governor Hochul had a closer-than-anticipated victory in the 2022 election, defeating Lee Zeldin by a mere 6 points.
Governor Hochul’s narrow win a few years ago, along with current electoral trends, have fostered Republican optimism about making this year’s governor race more competitive. The GOP aims to associate Hochul and moderate Democrats with progressive lawmakers who emerged from New York City primaries, many identifying as democratic socialists.
Despite challenges, Democrats point out that Hochul enjoys greater popularity and recognition now than during her previous campaign. The national political climate appears favorable for Democrats, attributed to former President Trump’s declining approval ratings, the unpopular Iran conflict, and rising concerns over economic issues and cost-of-living.
Latest Poll Results Show Hochul’s Lead Narrowing
Governor Hochul held a 10-point lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in the latest Siena poll, which surveyed 811 likely voters from August 3-6, 2026. Her support was at 49 percent, with Blakeman at 39 percent.
This represents a tighter race compared to their earlier June poll where Hochul enjoyed a 20-point lead, 52 percent to 32 percent. In April, she led by 16 points, 49 percent to 33 percent, and 13 points, 47 percent to 34 percent, in March. Blakeman’s 39 percent support is the highest seen in a Siena poll.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for the sample who answered the core questions.
Other Democratic candidates also outperformed Hochul in the poll. Letitia James, in the attorney general race, led Republican Saritha Komatireddy by 18 points, 54 percent to 36 percent. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli had a 23-point lead over Republican Joseph Hernandez.
Boris Heersink, a Fordham University political science professor, told Newsweek it was “a little surprising to see Hochul do worse in this poll than other Democratic candidates.”
“But overall, a ten-point lead is still comfortable, and Hochul is doing better than she did in the 2022 race. It’s unlikely Hochul will lose in November; the electorate in the state is mostly pro-Democrat,” he said.
Joseph Viteritti, the Thomas Hunter Professor of Public Policy at Hunter College, stated Hochul maintains a “safe lead” but noted Blakeman’s “gaining momentum as he becomes more recognized among voters.”
Blakeman responded to the poll with a statement to Newsweek:
“All of the polls in the last two months show us practically tied with Kathy Hochul. This poll is consistently off. The race is neck and neck. Hochul wants people to believe she is far ahead, despite her high taxes, rising electric bills, and increasing crime, which make her America’s worst governor,”
Blakeman claimed.
Newsweek reached out to Hochul’s campaign for feedback via email.
Insights From Other Polls and Forecasts
A co/efficient poll surveying 1,085 likely voters from June 30-July 2, 2026, showed Hochul ahead by 6 points, 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. This poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, first reported by The New York Post.
An Echelon Insights poll conducted with 500 registered voters from March 24-26, 2026, showed Hochul leading by 15 points. This survey, first reported by Politico, had Hochul at 55 percent to Blakeman’s 40 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as safe and solid Democratic.
Hochul holds a strong position in prediction markets. Her chance of victory stands at 94 percent on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as of Wednesday morning.
Prediction markets aggregate real‑money bets into probability estimates, though they may not accurately predict future outcomes.
Some Democrats anticipated Hochul might face vulnerability in a Democratic primary, and Antonio Delgado, her Lieutenant Governor, considered launching a primary challenge but ultimately withdrew, allowing Hochul to secure renomination.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed Hochul, writing in The Nation about the importance of her leadership:
“New Yorkers deserve transformational leaders. Governor Hochul has gained my endorsement by committing to govern in that spirit,”
Mamdani stated.
Viteritti remarked that Hochul’s strong bond with Mamdani might prevent defections from the left:
“Hochul and Mamdani realize they need each other, especially facing the coming budget challenges.”
Impact of Progressive Victories in NYC
The New York Democratic primaries were marked by progressive successes. Democratic socialist Darializa Avila-Chevalier and former comptroller Brad Lander defeated more moderate incumbents. Additionally, democratic socialist Claire Valdez secured an open congressional seat, alongside others winning local races.
Republicans aim to leverage the rise of progressive Democrats to potentially alienate moderate swing voters, hoping to regain support in November. They seek to associate Hochul, regarded as a mainstream Democrat, with these progressive candidates.
Blakeman informed The New York Post that Hochul complies with the wishes of Zohran Mamdani:
“She’s doing what Mamdani wants. He runs the party now.”
Heersink expressed doubt about these progressive victories negatively impacting statewide Democratic support:
“The midterm elections focus more on reactions to the Trump administration. Gubernatorial races offer some room for showing party disagreements because they don’t directly affect Congressional majorities, yet voters tend to remain loyal to their party.”
Evaluating New York’s Political Landscape
Democratic margins have reduced in New York, with one of the largest rightward shifts from 2020 to 2024. The GOP has gained traction in New York City’s outer boroughs among Latino and Asian voters, where crime is deemed a significant factor in Democrats’ waning margins.
Upcoming elections might determine whether Republicans can further strengthen voter connections in the state or if Democratic support will bounce back.
Despite Republican gains, Democrats have a considerable lead in voter registration across New York. As of February 20, the New York State Board of Elections recorded 6,445,605 Democrats versus 2,994,839 Republicans.
New York elected its last Republican governor, George Pataki, in 2002.
Contacted Newsweek editor for further insights: Edward Pearcey.