In 2026, hitting in Major League Baseball has never been more challenging. Pitchers like Jacob Misiorowski are throwing 104 mph fastballs combined with sharp 93 mph sliders. A decade ago, the average fastball speed was 93 mph. Misiorowski’s performance stands out, with only 15 earned runs in his first 15 starts this year.
Pitching Prowess
Relievers are also showcasing impressive skills. San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller has allowed just three earned runs in 32 innings. Out of 123 batters faced, Miller struck out 63. While the league’s average hard hit percentage is about 40%, Miller’s is a mere 7%. Both Misiorowski and Miller demonstrate extreme pitching dominance.
Advancements in Pitching
The evolution of pitch development has surpassed hitting. The abundance of available data allows players to refine their pitch mix for optimal results. This emphasis on science in pitching development makes it clear why pitchers continue to outperform hitters.
The Surge in Offense
Despite these advantages for pitchers, offense has increased recently. How is this happening? Because the baseball has changed. Eno Sarris from The Athletic found a significant reduction in drag on the baseball, the lowest since 2019. Less drag allows the ball to travel farther.
In 2019, a season known for high offense, there were 10 players with 40 or more home runs and 58 with 30 or more. The league’s batting average was .252/.323/.425. In 2025, with increased drag, the league hit .245/.315/.404, highlighting a drop in performance.
Role of Reduced Drag
Sean Zerillo’s research supported these findings. He observed increases in barrel distance by 10.2 feet from April to June 2026. Typical weather-related boosts average 4.6 feet, but the extra distance aligns with lowered drag beginning in June.
Even in controlled environments like domes or closed-roof stadiums, Zerillo noted a 10.4-foot increase in distance, ruling out weather as a significant factor.
MLB’s Intentions
Variations in baseballs occur annually despite MLB controlling production. Humidors at all stadiums regulate conditions further. While there’s no direct order from Rob Manfred to reduce drag, the league’s interest in boosting offense is clear.
The league introduced rule changes in 2023, like banning defensive shifts, to enhance offense, initially raising runs per game from 4.28 in 2022 to 4.62 in 2023. But by 2025, runs per game had decreased to 4.45. As pitching evolved, leveling the field for hitters with low-drag baseballs may be MLB’s strategy.
Balancing Act
While enthusiasts appreciate pitching battles, many fans enjoy home runs from stars such as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto. Additional distance, even by a few feet, can turn a fly ball into a home run or influence game outcomes significantly.
The question remains whether these changes will persist throughout the season and into the crucial October games when home runs prove most valuable.
Written by Ian Miller, OutKick.