Republican Steve Hilton is progressing to the general-election race against former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. Hilton aims to become California’s first Republican governor in 15 years. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited, leaving an open seat. Republicans see a chance to capitalize on dissatisfaction over illegal immigration and crime.
On Tuesday night, the Decision Desk projected Hilton as advancing to the general election. President Donald Trump acknowledged Hilton’s progress on Truth Social.
Data from the Associated Press shows Hilton in second with 25.1% of the votes, while Democrat Tom Steyer has 22.4%. With 83% of votes counted as of 12:21 a.m. Tuesday, the race for the second candidate remains uncalled.
Polls Indicate Challenges for Hilton
Surveys show Hilton as a contender but with challenges ahead. A SurveyUSA poll leading up to the election indicated Hilton and Steyer each had 20%, while Becerra had 17%. An Emerson College poll, however, placed Becerra at 28%, Steyer at 22%, and Hilton at 21%.
The primary’s conclusion could see Democrats’ lead over Hilton increase. Democrats had spread their support across several candidates, including Becerra and Steyer. Consolidation behind a single candidate could increase the gap between Hilton and the top Democrat. Currently, Kalshi odds give Hilton a 7% chance of winning, compared to Becerra’s 70%, with Polymarket offering similar odds.
Hilton’s Campaign Focus and Challenges
Hilton’s experience as a Fox News host grants him recognition and a clear ideological stance. His campaign priorities include lowering taxes and addressing crime. Trump endorsed Hilton, promising assistance should Hilton win. Hilton intends to investigate Newsom for fraud if elected.
Despite a unified Republican Party, Hilton faces significant obstacles. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one in California. To win, Hilton must attract independents or dissatisfied Democrats. Economic concerns and dissatisfaction with Newsom may play in his favor.
Republican History and Electoral Dynamics
The last Republican governor of California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, reelected in 2006. At that time, Republicans and Democrats were closer in registered voter numbers. Now, there are over 10 million registered Democrats and about 5 million Republicans in the state.
Fundraising Disparities
This year, Hilton raised over $7 million for his campaign, with a surge in donations after April 19. Becerra raised a little over $6 million this year, with more than $5 million donated after April 19. Steyer secured the largest amount, with over $160 million raised.
To become the first Republican governor in 15 years, Hilton must broaden his coalition. Independent support and possibly Democratic votes are crucial for his campaign’s success.
Becerra Secures General Election Position
Xavier Becerra advances to the November gubernatorial election after coming through the crowded primary. The Democrat and former California attorney general gains backing through his public service record. His campaign emphasizes affordability issues, including housing and energy costs.
If elected, Becerra would become the first Latino governor of California in over a century. His leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and his time in the Biden administration have been scrutinized by opponents.