Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s newly sworn-in president, is on his inaugural international trip to India. The visit, as stated by India’s foreign ministry, will run from Saturday to Wednesday. During his stay, Hlaing will engage in talks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and meet Indian business leaders. He is also scheduled to meet with India’s President Droupadi Murmu.
This trip marks Hlaing’s first venture abroad since assuming the presidency in April. His election was widely criticized by Western governments and human rights organizations as illegitimate. In 2021, as the leader of Myanmar’s military, Hlaing led a coup that ousted the elected government. This coup was led by Aung San Suu Kyi and caused a civil war that remains ongoing.
Despite ongoing violence, Myanmar’s military proceeded with the elections, excluding millions of voters due to conflict and preventing Suu Kyi’s party from participating. Ahead of Hlaing’s visit, New Delhi emphasized that the trip aims to enhance and deepen the multifaceted relations between the two countries.
Analysts initially anticipated Hlaing’s first state visit would be to China, given China’s strong support for Myanmar’s military election. However, that visit has yet to occur. Reasons speculated include China’s involvement with visits from former U.S. President Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. According to analyst Min Zaw Oo, additional preparations were necessary for discussions between Myanmar and China.
Myanmar analyst Morgan Michaels notes that India’s visit comes first due to India’s sustained relationship with Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, since the coup. India recognized the Tatmadaw, sending its minister to Hlaing’s swearing-in ceremony in April, signaling a willingness to engage with the new leadership. Additionally, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar recently.
Key topics for India and Myanmar include shared security issues along their 1,000-kilometer border. Myanmar concerns itself with internal resistance, while India grapples with insurgent groups in its northeast. Other agenda items likely include drug and arms smuggling, as well as human trafficking. India seeks access to Myanmar’s rare earth deposits, although China’s dominance in the region’s supply chain poses challenges.
Myanmar’s military has recently shifted to an offensive strategy after enduring significant battlefield losses. New tactics and drone capabilities, with support from Russia and China, have bolstered its position, leading to a reversal in conflict dynamics. Myanmar analyst Morgan Michaels notes the military’s renewed momentum, putting pressure on opposition forces.
Diplomatic efforts are a priority for Myanmar’s military-backed regime. Influenced less by Western media, they aim to restore normal relations with the ASEAN, from which they have been somewhat suspended. Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group suggests Myanmar seeks to regain its United Nations seat, presently held by the previous ambassador appointed by Aung San Suu Kyi.
ASEAN’s approach may be weakening, particularly after agreeing to a virtual meeting with Myanmar’s new foreign minister, Tin Maung Swe, prompted by Thailand. Rights groups express concern these interactions and the India visit might legitimize Myanmar’s military regime, despite ongoing conflicts resulting in substantial civilian and combatant casualties.