The upcoming Texas Senate race presents a closely contested battle between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. The race appears to be deadlocked and voter turnout will play a crucial role in the final outcome.
Paxton, buoyed by Texas’ Republican leanings, appeals to voters through party allegiance and support for former President Trump. Meanwhile, Talarico benefits from voters’ economic concerns and his perceived personal character.
In a survey, more Democrats showed commitment to vote, presenting Talarico with a potential advantage. Yet, should Republican turnout increase, the dynamics may shift.
Voters supporting Paxton often cite backing the GOP nominee or opposing Talarico as reasons, alongside alignment with Trump’s policies.
Talarico gains favor among voters affected by economic challenges. With the cost of living being a primary concern, Talarico leads among voters struggling with expenses. His personal character also attracts support, outweighing its importance to Paxton’s supporters.
Among Republicans, Talarico captures 5% of the vote. Surprisingly, he also secures 9% of voters who typically avoid Democratic candidates but are considering him now.
Paxton’s position is bolstered by Texas’ support for Trump’s deportation strategies, a sentiment stronger locally than nationally. Republicans also view Talarico’s policies as cultural threats, further solidifying Paxton’s backing.
Texas demographics reveal a higher number of Republicans than Democrats, requiring Talarico to excel among independents. He must activate new voters and ensure substantial turnout from younger demographics, who largely favor him but historically vote at lower rates.
Latinos, pivotal in the race, previously leaned towards Trump but now predominantly support Talarico. They cite struggles with rising costs and question Paxton’s personal character.
In another significant political contest, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa slightly. Interestingly, 7% of Talarico’s supporters also back Abbott.
The CBS News/YouGov survey polled 1,492 registered Texas voters between October 8-16, 2026. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, reflecting U.S. Census data, and adjusted for the 2024 presidential vote.
The margin of error stands at ± 3.4 points for registered voters and ± 3.5 points for likely voters.