A recent poll indicates that Democrat Josh Turek may win over some voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 Iowa Senate race. This election is one of the year’s most competitive contests, as Turek competes with Republican Ashley Hinson for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. The campaign remains close, with major debates around tariffs, immigration, and voting records.
The latest YouGov poll shows Turek leading with 47 percent support, compared to Hinson’s 46 percent; 4 percent of voters remain undecided. The poll surveyed 2,245 likely voters from October 6 to October 12, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent. Importantly, Turek appears to have gained some support from Trump voters. While 52 percent of respondents previously backed Trump, 41 percent now support Vice President Kamala Harris.
Other polls present a mixed picture. A Suffolk University poll from early October gave Turek a 4-point lead. Beacon Research and InsiderAdvantage polls from late September showed narrower margins in Turek’s favor, while a Marist University poll reported a stronger 8-point advantage for Turek.
Conversely, some polls indicate Hinson has the edge. An Emerson College poll from early October favored Hinson at 47 percent against Turek’s 45 percent. A CNN poll from late September showed a 2-point lead for Hinson. Meanwhile, Quantus Insights and a New York Times/Siena University poll also reported small leads for Hinson.
Although the second debate between Turek and Hinson did not impact the YouGov poll results, it contributed to ongoing discussions about the economy and inflation, vital issues for Iowa voters concerned about inflation and fuel costs.
“Both candidates have exchanged sharp words about the economy and the best path forward,” explained the polling report.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi present different perspectives. Polymarket gives Hinson a 57 percent chance of winning, while Kalshi shows her slightly ahead at 58 percent.
The Iowa Senate race carries significant weight for midterm elections. It could shape control of Congress as Republicans hope to address economic concerns and the effects of the Iran war. While Iowa has inclined Republican in Senate races since 2008, its mixed presidential voting record makes this election a battleground.
Early voting in Iowa began recently and continues until November 2. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. This year’s results could be pivotal, considering Iowa’s Senate has been Republican-led for over a decade, with Democrats last winning a Senate seat 18 years ago.