Alaska may see a Democratic governor for the first time since Tony Knowles left office in 2002. Current polls indicate Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a significant lead over his three Republican rivals. Since 1968, Alaska has consistently chosen Republican presidential candidates, with Donald Trump securing victories by large margins in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections. In 2024, Trump garnered 54.5% of the votes, leading over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by 13.1 points.
Despite the state’s Republican leanings in presidential elections, Alaskan voters have shown willingness to support Democratic candidates in other races. Democrat Mark Begich was elected to the Senate in 2008 and Democrat Mary Peltola to the House in 2022. Peltola now seeks a Senate seat. Currently, the governorship race has sparked interest, with Democrats hopeful for a Democratic leader. Kreiss-Tomkins is the sole Democrat against Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor. According to polls tracked by the New York Times, Kreiss-Tomkins consistently leads.
The gubernatorial election occurs as Republicans battle to retain U.S. House and Senate control amid slipping Trump approval and rising economic concerns.
A Democratic governor would not alter the congressional balance but could signal Republican challenges. This year’s political environment has resulted in competitive races in previously Republican-leaning states like Alaska and Iowa. According to The Cook Political Report, Alaska faces high odds of electing a Democratic governor for the first time since 2002. Cook’s analysis highlights Kreiss-Tomkins’ lead, though it suggests a closer final vote than initial polls show.
2026 Governor Races
Nationwide, Cook assesses all governor races. Thirteen states are seen as Solid Democrat and include California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Five states, including Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, and Oregon, lean Democrat. Four states are Toss-Ups: Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Three states lean Republican, likely Republican in four, and stand solid Republican in seven others.
Democratic Chances in Alaska Senate Race
Alaskan voters appear inclined towards Democrat Mary Peltola in the Senate race against Republican Dan Sullivan. Recent New York Times polls show Peltola leading in three since late September. University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently upgraded Alaska’s Senate race to “Leans Democratic” from “Toss-Up.” A Peltola win would be the first Democratic Senate victory in Alaska in nearly two decades.
What Happens Next
As early voting begins, attention will focus on whether a Democrat claims the governorship, ending a Republican streak since 2002. A Kreiss-Tomkins victory might alter Alaska’s political dynamics two years ahead of the next presidential election.