The upcoming midterm elections will quickly shift focus to the 2028 presidential race, presenting new challenges for both major parties. For Republicans, this will mark the first time in over a decade that Donald Trump will not lead the ticket, prompting the party to redefine its identity and direction in a post-Trump era. Democrats face a similar situation, lacking a clear future leader.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris remains popular in national polls. However, many donors and strategists have expressed concerns following her performance in the 2024 elections. This creates an open field with numerous Democratic candidates vying for prominence, as the party grapples with divisions between its progressive and establishment factions.
While Democrats evaluate potential candidates, Vice President JD Vance has begun shaping his path to the White House. According to Politico, Vance has adopted a public stance characterized by patience and empathy. He has acknowledged voter dissatisfaction over issues like cost of living and the administration’s handling of the war with Iran, urging patience and avoiding abrupt changes. This approach differs from Trump, who minimized affordability concerns and consistently painted a positive picture of the economy.
Vance has attempted to energize the Republicans’ populist wing, appealing to “America First” supporters by criticizing concepts such as “globalized liberalism,” “American elites,” and the belief that free markets automatically benefit Americans. The New York Times describes this as “New Right economics.” On foreign policy, Vance diverges from Trump’s stance, supporting a more isolationist, Israel-skeptical approach and leading the push for a summer ceasefire with Iran.
As vice president, Vance’s role includes promoting the administration’s agenda, but he aims to have a personal impact on the Republican Party’s direction. While past vice presidents often ran as extensions of the incumbent, Trump’s unpopularity, with an approval rating of 38 percent, complicates Vance’s efforts to follow in his footsteps. Vance’s success may hinge on a potential Trump endorsement.
Despite leading early polling for the 2028 Republican nomination by about 16 points, Vance faces challenges. His reception was strong at the recent Republican midterm convention, drawing enthusiastic support. Yet the Republican field remains limited, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the only serious competitor; others like Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. lag behind in polls.
Trump’s coalition, robust in 2024, is weakening, particularly among Hispanic voters, with only 27 percent approval in NBC polling. Vance’s adherence to the party’s immigration stance and defense of controversial actions, such as ICE’s involvement in a shooting incident, may hinder his appeal to these voters.
Vance’s prospects are tied to the Republican Party’s midterm performance. Currently, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8 points. Key Senate races in Texas, Alaska, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Michigan show Democrats ahead. Emerson’s August survey revealed that independents remain unconvinced about Vance, with Rubio outperforming him in hypothetical matchups against leading Democrats like Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Vance is strategically positioning himself as Trump’s natural successor, aiming to steer Republicans toward his version of populism. This could help him attract independents, and he recognizes the significance of a Trump endorsement. Although his success remains uncertain, Vance reveals both his political aspirations and ambitions by offering a more approachable image while attempting to influence the party’s future.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman, partners at Schoen Cooperman Research, are the co-authors of “America: Unite or Die.”