Three Senate races have shifted in favor of the Democrats four weeks before the midterm elections. The Cook Political Report has adjusted its predictions: Kansas moved from Lean Republican to a Toss Up, New Hampshire from a Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Midterm elections often test the political climate for the ruling party, and historically, the president’s party loses seats.
Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate. President Donald Trump recorded significant victories in Kansas by defeating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Though Kansas leans Republican, Democrats find success with Laura Kelly as governor while Republicans maintain two U.S. Senate seats. Trump also won North Carolina, while Harris claimed New Hampshire.
The shifts indicate concerning trends for Republicans as Democrats aim to benefit from Trump’s declining approval ratings and rising affordability issues across American households. The forecaster noted, “The question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many.”
Hopeful Gains for Democrats and Gloom for Republicans
Cook Political Report estimates Democrats may gain between two to six Senate seats. The party needs four to take control. While Republicans are hopeful in Michigan and Maine, momentum is slipping. Kansas poses a risk for the GOP, which could lose a seat held since 1919. Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in the race.
Recent polls show Hamilton either narrowly leading or running even with Marshall. Economic concerns related to agriculture, fertilizer, and gas prices add competition in the state. Cook labeled Kansas the “Democrats’ Cinderella story of the cycle.” Prediction sites Kalshi and Polymarket indicate Marshall’s lead.
Challenges and Contests in New Hampshire and North Carolina
In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas leads Republican John E. Sununu for the U.S. Senate seat. Polling drives the shift, but the forecaster acknowledged a potentially close outcome due to national dynamics. New Hampshire hasn’t elected a Republican senator in over 15 years. Prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, show Pappas ahead.
North Carolina presents a tougher landscape for Republicans. Michael Whatley trails former Governor Roy Cooper across various polls. Trump’s concern over Whatley saw the Senate Leadership Fund pull advertising funds elsewhere, despite a rally in the state last month. Democrats anticipate leveraging Trump’s waning approval as midterms approach.
Democrats face stronger prospects, despite a nearly two-decade drought in Senate elections in North Carolina. Predictions from Kalshi and Polymarket both indicate Cooper leading over Whatley.
Overall Trends Favor Democrats
As midterms loom, Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia, commented, “Almost all fronts indicate Democrats may seize the House and potentially the Senate.” Shapiro emphasized the need for Democrats to hold on to Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire, where Republicans pose threats. Relying on strong polling, Shapiro noted a potential repudiation of Trump and his leadership, citing declining approval among Republican and Independent voters.