Three Republican-held districts in Virginia, known for its data centers, are seeing increased competition ahead of the November midterms. This shift is highlighted by recent race rating changes and internal polling reported by Newsweek. Earlier predictions suggested Virginia would not be a significant battleground due to a Supreme Court ruling that prevented redistricting. However, current developments suggest otherwise.
District Shifts and Democratic Strategies
This week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjusted its ratings for several districts. Representative Jen Kiggans’ 2nd District moved from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Representative Rob Wittman’s 1st District shifted from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Representative John McGuire’s 5th District changed from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Democratic polling indicates narrow Republican leads in the 1st and 5th districts, prompting party groups to invest in these races.
Additionally, Democrats are targeting a fourth seat, focusing on Republican Representative Ben Cline’s 6th District. As Virginia’s data center industry expands, it plays a significant role in the broader Congressional contest. Democratic candidate Tom Perriello is leveraging this issue in District 5, criticizing McGuire for supporting tax breaks for developers and opposing a transmission line linked to the industry’s electricity needs.
Public Opinion on Data Centers
Data centers have become a campaign issue. The Washington Post-Schar School survey showed 35 percent of Virginia voters are comfortable with a local data center. In contrast, a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll found 65 percent opposed an AI data center nearby.
The University of Massachusetts survey indicated bipartisan opposition. Democrats showed 76 percent disapproval, independents 67 percent, and Republicans 52 percent. Concerns included environmental harm (28 percent) and higher utility bills (10 percent). A CBS News/YouGov poll showed 54 percent of likely voters preferred candidates opposing local data centers.
District Specific Dynamics
Virginia’s 1st Congressional District
Republican Wittman faces challenges from Shannon Taylor, Henrico County’s Commonwealth’s Attorney. Taylor has proposed a ban on stock trading by Congress members and permanent lobbying bans for former lawmakers. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee believes Taylor’s background appeals to voters in the evolving Richmond area.
Internal polling shows Wittman at 47 percent and Taylor at 46 percent. The poll noted a Republican lean, with survey respondents having voted for Trump by a small margin.
Virginia’s 5th Congressional District
Tom Perriello, a former congressman, is running against McGuire in a district that poses challenges for Democrats. Perriello has previously served, winning his seat by a narrow margin in 2008 but losing in 2010. Data centers are central to his campaign, criticizing McGuire for supporting corporate tax breaks.
An Expedition Strategies poll showed McGuire at 46 percent, Perriello at 45 percent, and independent candidate Cooke C. Harvey at 6 percent. While the district leans Republican, Perriello’s strategy links federal policy to local issues.
National Perspective and Trump’s Stance on AI Data Centers
Former President Trump has expressed support for data center expansion to compete with China in AI. Despite internal GOP hesitations, Trump has argued that data centers benefit communities by reducing taxes and boosting wealth. He has also held meetings with tech leaders to discuss AI’s future, signing an executive order for federal agencies to use the term ‘Super Intelligence’ instead of ‘artificial intelligence.’
Trump emphasized that data centers could potentially bring financial benefits to communities, asserting their growing popularity.