Democrats are actively competing in Senate and gubernatorial races in states that President Donald Trump won by significant margins during the 2024 presidential elections. The focus is on Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. These contests have prompted discussions about potential challenges Republicans might face in the upcoming 2026 midterms. There are questions regarding whether Democrats can leverage these political dynamics.
Trump’s Approval Ratings
President Trump’s approval ratings have caused concern among Republicans. Nationally, 35 percent of voters support his job performance, while 59 percent do not, creating a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs’ polling data as of August 27. The poll has surveyed 126,377 registered voters since Trump’s inauguration for his second term on January 20, 2025. Comparatively, an Economist/YouGov poll from August 25 shows a similar approval rate at 35 percent, with a net rating of -26. During the same period in his first term, Trump’s net approval was -9, while former Democratic President Joe Biden’s was -12.
Platforms like RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin show his approval varied between 38 and 40 percent.
Factors Affecting GOP
Alex Patton of Ozean Media attributes the political climate to economic mega-trends, inflation, consumer prices, and Trump’s low approval numbers among Independents. He describes the situation as problematic for the GOP, despite stock market gains, which he notes as distinct from broader economic health.
Impact of Trump’s 2024 Election Victory
In the 2024 election, Trump triumphed over then-Vice President Kamala Harris, securing 312 Electoral College votes and winning the popular vote. He dominated 31 states, including 24 with significant margins. Wyoming demonstrated Trump’s largest margin at 45.8 points.
Post-election, Republicans controlled both the Senate and the House. At the state level, they held most governorships heading into 2025.
2026 Midterm Prospects
Historically, midterms often result in losses for the party occupying the White House. Analysts caution against interpreting the 2026 midterms solely as a Trump referendum. The president’s approval ratings will influence elections significantly, yet factors like candidate quality and local issues are crucial.
Matt Klink highlights past Democratic losses in midterms under Obama, contrasting Republican setbacks under Trump’s first term.
Some experts argue Trump’s unpopularity presents Democrats with openings in states typically challenging for them. Doug Gordon emphasizes Trump’s unmet promises and the competitive environment Democrats now face.
Alaska: A Key Battleground
Trump won Alaska by 13.1 percentage points in 2024 against Harris. Despite its Republican leanings, Democrats remain competitive due to ranked-choice voting. They see opportunities in the upcoming Senate race with Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and former Representative Mary Peltola.
Polls show a tight contest. Data for Progress reveals in ranked-choice voting, Peltola leads Sullivan. Alaska’s Survey Research also mirrors similar trends.
Ohio: Another Focus Area
Ohio emerges as a promising state for Democrats. Trump secured Ohio by 11 percentage points in 2024. Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown seeks a return against Republican Senator Jon Husted.
Polling demonstrates Brown’s lead. The Fox News poll places him 8 points ahead, with strong support from independents. Sabato’s Crystal Ball previously marked the race from Lean Republican to a toss-up.
Similarly, Amy Acton is challenging Vivek Ramaswamy for the governorship. Polls indicate a close race, with differing leader positions. The Cook Political Report identifies the contest as a toss-up.
Texas: A Democratic Aspiration
Democrats aim to change Texas’ Republican landscape. Trump won Texas by 13.7 points in 2024. The Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is anticipated to be competitive.
Surveys convey varied leads between Paxton and Talarico. Paxton’s past controversies potentially impact his prospects despite his strong party support.
Iowa: Competitive Races
Iowa remains engaged politically with Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek in the Senate race. A history of swings and previous Democratic successes heighten expectations.
Polls suggest tight contests with forecasts altering ratings from leaning Republican to toss-up.
With Governor Kim Reynolds stepping down, Republican Zach Lahn faces Democrat Rob Sand. Polls show Sand slightly favoring.
Kansas: Unexpected Opportunities
Trump’s victory in Kansas was decisive. Cindy Holscher seeks to succeed Laura Kelly as governor in the Democratic endeavor. Versus Ty Masterson, most forecasts hold advantages for Republicans.
Early polling shows slim leads within margins of error, suggesting potential competitiveness.