Darline Graham’s Nomination
Darline Graham secured the Republican Party’s nomination for South Carolina’s Senate race. She will compete against Democrat Annie Andrews in the upcoming November general election. Her nomination follows the passing of Senator Lindsey Graham, who had represented South Carolina since 2003. He passed away in July due to an aortic dissection.
President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham, who is also the sister of the late senator. She was appointed by Governor Henry McMaster to fill the Senate seat temporarily. Graham defeated Representative Ralph Norman, obtaining approximately 52% of the primary vote.
The Democratic Challenge
Annie Andrews, the Democratic nominee, was chosen in June. She faces challenges in a state that supported Trump by 18 points in 2024. Nevertheless, Democrats hope for a tighter race due to declining approval ratings for President Trump. Andrews has expressed optimism about increasing fundraising and grassroots support. She noted that Republican candidates have aligned closely with Trump’s policies, potentially creating an opening for her campaign.
Polling Insight
Polling data has been limited since Lindsey Graham’s death. An internal poll from Andrews’ campaign suggests a competitive race but lacks independent confirmation. Before Graham’s death, Andrews’ internal poll indicated a 3-point gap, with Lindsey Graham leading. Impact Research conducted this survey with 700 likely voters in June 2026.
Prediction markets, however, show Republicans with a significant advantage. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket reflect around an 88% Republican win probability. These markets aggregate political event contracts into probability estimates based on trader sentiment and do not always accurately predict outcomes.
The Republican Outlook
Political forecasters, including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, classify the race as safely Republican. Historically, South Carolina has leaned Republican in presidential and Senate races, with the last Democratic presidential win occurring in 1976.
Despite efforts to make South Carolina competitive, Democrats often face significant challenges. The state has a large Black voter base, and urban areas like Charleston and Columbia show Democratic preferences. Yet, rural and suburban areas heavily favor Republicans.
Changing Political Landscape
Some Democrats view 2026 as a unique opportunity due to Trump’s declining approval ratings. A Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed a 65% disapproval rating, while a Civiqs poll found 51% disapproval among South Carolina residents. This negative sentiment poses a challenge for Republicans but does not guarantee a Democratic win.
Although Democrats aim to expand their influence in South Carolina, the state’s political history suggests continued Republican dominance in the upcoming elections.