Introduction
Kazakhstan was voting Sunday in a parliamentary election that is likely to further consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s power in Central Asia’s largest nation. The pro-presidential Adilet party is projected to achieve a significant majority, with other smaller parties supporting Tokayev also expected to gain seats in parliament. This election represents the country’s first vote for a new, single-chamber parliament known as the Kurultai.
Background on President Tokayev
President Tokayev, 73 years old, previously served as a Soviet official and Kazakh diplomat and worked at the United Nations. He has held the presidency since 2019. The current vote concludes a constitutional overhaul begun by Tokayev in March, which saw 87% of voters endorse a referendum merging the two parliamentary chambers into one and granting the president authority to appoint key officials, subject to parliamentary approval, including reinstating the vice presidency.
Political Context and Economic Challenges
Tokayev has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West since sanctions were placed on Russia due to its war in Ukraine, justifying these amendments by emphasizing the necessity for rapid decision-making in an ever-changing world. Last month, Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court declared that the amendments reset Tokayev’s previous terms in office, allowing him to potentially run for an additional seven-year term.
The election occurs during a challenging economic period for Kazakhstan. February saw inflation at 10.2%, and tax increases have led to public dissatisfaction. Analysts indicate that these economic challenges have made the authorities cautious of a recurrence of the unrest from January 2022, when fuel price protests escalated into violence, resulting in numerous casualties. This situation has driven Tokayev to consolidate his power.
Media Freedom Concerns
The election also transpires amid escalating actions against media freedom. Media groups have urged Tokayev to abandon criminal charges against journalists under house arrest and revise legislation to ensure media freedom. Authorities have initiated approximately 10 criminal cases against independent journalists and popular bloggers.
Akhmedyarov, an independent journalist hosting “Simply Journalism,” faces charges for “disseminating false information.” This accusation came after he released a list of Kazakh citizens participating in the Ukraine conflict. If convicted, he faces up to seven years in prison.
“In the lead-up to these parliamentary elections, repression has intensified sharply, with attacks on independent media, cyberattacks, and criminal cases launched against independent journalists and popular bloggers,” Akhmedyarov stated from Almaty.
He noted that cities in Kazakhstan are saturated with promotions and posters for the pro-presidential Adilet party.
“Predicting the outcome of these elections is not very difficult,” Akhmedyarov added.