The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that COVID-19 infections are rising in nearly every U.S. state. As of August 12, the CDC’s modeling indicates an increase in COVID-19 infections in 50 states and the District of Columbia. Iowa is the only state with insufficient data to determine a trend.
Three weeks prior, as of July 22, COVID-19 infections were rising or likely rising in 37 states, whereas 11 states observed no significant change in transmission. This has changed, as stable regions have vanished on the latest map.
The Summer COVID Wave
The CDC’s model categorizes states based on whether infections are increasing, decreasing, or stable. Recent figures indicate that a COVID wave, which began in parts of the South and West in July, has spread nationwide. Forty-seven states are now in the “Growing” category. New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia are “Likely Growing.” No states are classified as “Not Changing,” “Declining,” or “Likely Declining.” The national estimate remains above the threshold signifying transmission growth.
Major states like California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Georgia report increases, joined by much of the Midwest, Northeast, South, and Mountain West. In numerous states, the probability of increasing infections exceeds 99% according to CDC estimates.
Analyzing the Data
The model evaluates whether transmission trends are increasing or waning, rather than quantifying current infection numbers. It serves as an early indicator of shifting disease activity, potentially highlighting trends before other surveillance data reflects changes. The August map is predominantly red, implying a nationwide potential for increased disease activity.
Experts’ Views on COVID-19 Risk
Andrew Pekosz, a Professor of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, explained that late summer or early fall surges have become expected. He noted that cases are on a steady rise, which aligns with the “seasonal” phase of COVID-19 rather than the earlier “pandemic” phase. Pekosz also urged public vigilance in getting COVID-19 booster shots and availing COVID-19 antivirals from local pharmacies, while checking on vaccines for influenza and RSV.
Peter Chin-Hong, a professor and infectious disease expert at The University of California, San Francisco, echoed these sentiments, observing a broad national wave. Chin-Hong emphasized protecting vulnerable groups such as individuals over 75, those who are pregnant or seriously immunocompromised, and very young children who might not have been vaccinated or exposed to the virus previously.
From Regional Increase to National Trend
The CDC’s recent estimates align with ongoing federal assessments of pandemic response strategies. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee has been revisiting decisions from the pandemic era and hearing testimonies, including from Dr. Anthony Fauci. Republicans continue to scrutinize the government’s approach to the pandemic and its origins.
The U.S. now shows a more unified trend of increasing COVID-19 cases, moving past the earlier patchwork pattern observed earlier in the summer. States previously considered stable, like portions of the Southwest and Northeast, now show growth. While the CDC’s estimates derive from surveillance modeling instead of direct case counts, the trend is clear: COVID-19 is on the rise across nearly the entire country.