Changes in Approval Ratings
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have shown contrasting trends among major Christian groups in 2024. According to Marquette Law School’s national polls, his approval among born-again Protestants rose from 56% in January to 61% in July. In contrast, approval among Roman Catholics fell from 54% to 45% during the same period. This resulted in a notable 32-point gap in net approval ratings between born-again Protestants and Catholics.
Background of Changes
The decrease in Trump’s approval among Catholics aligns with his public disagreements with Pope Leo XIV regarding the war with Iran and immigration policies. While the disputes do not directly link to approval changes, they likely influence the divide between Catholics and the born-again Protestant constituency. This group remains central to Trump’s political base.
“There has never been a greater president for Christian Americans than President Trump, and his strong record proves it.” – White House Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers
Poll Details
The divergence between born-again Protestants and Catholics became more pronounced after April. Among born-again Protestants, Trump’s approval rose steadily, whereas among Catholics, it dropped despite a slight recovery in July. Mainline Protestant approval remained stable at 47% from January to July, despite fluctuations.
Nationally, Trump’s approval saw a slight decline from 42% in January to 38% in May and June, followed by an increase to 40% in July. The surveys covered 1,002 to 1,514 adults, with margins of error ranging from 2.7 to 3.5 percentage points.
Trump and Pope Leo’s Dispute
Trump’s feud with Pope Leo centered around immigration and war statements. The pope’s call for peace contrasted with Trump’s firm stance against Iran. Their conflict increased when Trump shared an AI-generated image portraying him as a Christ-like figure, which he later removed.
Pope Leo remains popular internationally, with a May survey placing his favorable rating at 56%, surpassing Trump’s 34%.
Importance of the Catholic Vote
Catholic voters, comprising 20% of 2024 voters and 22% of Trump’s coalition, are crucial due to their political division. While Trump secured 81% of white evangelical Protestants, he achieved only 55% among Catholics, with notable racial differences.
Even slight opinion shifts among Catholics can significantly impact election outcomes, particularly in tight districts. With the upcoming fight for Congressional control, both parties are eyeing key districts. Democrats aim to gain seats to overturn the Republican House majority.
Despite opposition from some church leaders, Trump continues to receive strong support from Christian voters. His policies regarding abortion restrictions and religious liberty resonate with many of his supporters.
For inquiries, contact Newsweek editors Matthew Robinson and Robert Greenall.