With 100 days until the 2026 midterm elections, new polling shows a challenging political environment for President Donald Trump. Civiqs’ online tracking poll of 118,886 registered voters indicates a less favorable landscape than when he began his second term. Newsweek analyzed Trump’s approval ratings from July 22, 2026, comparing them to January 20, 2025, when he resumed office. Nationally, Trump’s approval stands at 38%, with 57% disapproval, leaving him 19 points underwater.
State-by-State Overview
The state-by-state results mirror national trends. Trump’s approval is stronger in Republican-dominated states but remains low in crucial battleground regions that could impact the political balance post-midterms.
Trump is underwater in all major battleground states leading up to the 2026 midterm elections.
Some states that initially showed positive net approval have seen declines, with the largest drops in Trump’s early strongholds. The groups most negative toward Trump include younger voters, independents, and postgraduates.
Significance of Swing States
Trump’s negative ratings in swing states pose significant concerns. A small change in voter sentiment can influence which party will control Congress after the November 3 midterm elections.
Deep Red States Still Favor Trump
Trump retains strong support in Republican heartland states. Wyoming leads with a net approval of +26, followed by North Dakota, West Virginia, Alabama, Idaho, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. Despite this, many states have experienced declines.
For instance, Wyoming’s net approval fell from +47 to +26 since January 2025. Idaho and West Virginia also saw marked declines. Kentucky, starting at +23, now shows a -1 net rating.
Swing States Under Pressure
The political dynamics in key battleground states remain significant. Trump is underwater in:
- Arizona: -11
- Georgia: -21
- Nevada: -16
- North Carolina: -13
- Pennsylvania: -12
- Wisconsin: -14
- Florida: -9
- Ohio: -8
These states have crossed critical thresholds since Trump took office. Florida shifted from +9 to -9. Ohio moved from +8 to -8. Other states like Nevada and North Carolina also show significant declines.
Demographic Insights
Demographic breakdowns reveal why Trump’s state-level performance varies. Among the 18-34 age group, 25% approve of Trump, while 69% disapprove. For ages 35 to 49, approval is 31%, with 61% disapproval.
Independents also lean negative, with a 32% approval and 60% disapproval rate. Women disapprove by a 63-32 margin, while men are almost evenly split.
Education level plays a role. Postgraduates show a 27% approval against 69% disapproval. Among non-college graduates, 42% approve, and 53% disapprove.
States with Major Declines
Every state shows a lower approval rating compared to early 2025. Key declines include:
- Kentucky: +23 to -1 (down 24 points)
- Wyoming: +47 to +26 (down 21 points)
- Florida: +9 to -9 (down 18 points)
- Idaho: +34 to +14 (down 20 points)
- West Virginia: +35 to +18 (down 17 points)
Interestingly, declines are noted in some Republican strongholds initially providing Trump with substantial support.
Persistent Opposition in Deep Blue States
Trump’s weakest ratings continue in Democratic states. Hawaii has the lowest net approval at -59, with Vermont at -54 and Maryland at -49. California, Massachusetts, Washington, and New York exhibit similar opposition.
In these states, Trump’s low approval ratings signal ongoing resistance.
A Familiar but Weaker Electoral Map
Despite retaining a partisan profile, Trump’s electoral map reveals decreased margins. Originally, Trump had secure approval across Republican states and competitivity in battlegrounds. Now, previously positive states are more competitive or negative.
The White House’s Perspective
The White House dismisses polling fluctuations, attributing Trump’s continued support to his 2024 win. Spokesman Davis Ingle highlights accomplishments on jobs, inflation, and housing as key achievements. Ingle reassures that Trump’s agenda is still taking effect.