The leading scientific advisory body in the nation released a report that supports the expanding field of extreme event attribution. This field of science aims to quantify how climate change influences specific extreme weather events. This research could empower governments to hold industries accountable for damages linked to extreme weather.
Extreme event attribution seeks to answer how much global warming affects recent extreme weather such as heat waves, downpours, droughts, or wildfires. Scientists have known that burning fossil fuels increases the intensity and frequency of these events. However, it is only in recent decades that they have developed accurate methods to assess the specific impacts of worldwide warming on weather events.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine published a report that highlights significant advancements in attribution science. The report does not suggest direct policy or legal actions but indicates that these findings could influence legal cases. An example is a $50 billion lawsuit filed by Multnomah County in Oregon, which relied on an attribution study for evidence. This study determined that a major heatwave in the Pacific Northwest in 2021 was nearly impossible without human-driven climate change.
With rising numbers of similar lawsuits, fossil fuel industry allies have criticized attribution scientists. The Independent Petroleum Association of America’s project, Energy in Depth, claimed the report represents a strategic move in litigation. Despite this, the report acknowledges improvements in attribution research techniques, enhancing the ability to determine how human actions contribute to extreme temperatures more confidently than ever before.