Shapiro’s Lead Narrows in PA Governor Race
A Quinnipiac University poll indicates a narrowing in the lead of Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race. Shapiro leads Republican Stacy Garrity by 13 points, a reduction from an earlier 18-point lead. Pennsylvania is a key battleground, historically backing both parties’ candidates in elections.
Shapiro’s reelection campaign poses a significant test for Democrats aiming to strengthen their presence in a state that has shown mixed political preferences. He leads with 53% intending to vote for him, compared to 40% for Garrity. Support for Shapiro among Democrats stands at 96%, and independent voters favor him at 58%.
Garrity has seen her support from Republican voters rise from 82% to 87% since February, even as Shapiro’s overall approval has remained steady at 56%. However, Garrity remains relatively unfamiliar to many; 58% of respondents have not formed an opinion about her, whereas only 14% say the same about Shapiro.
Other polls, like one from Franklin & Marshall College, show Shapiro with an even larger lead of 50% compared to Garrity’s 28%. Political forecasters generally rate the race as likely or solid Democratic.
Fetterman’s Approval Among Democrats Declines
Senator John Fetterman faces challenges within his own party, as his approval rating among Democrats has declined to its lowest point. Only 19% of Democrats approve of his job performance, with 69% expressing disapproval. Despite these figures, Fetterman maintains a 48% overall approval rating, bolstered by 77% approval from Republicans.
Some Democrats have voiced frustration with Fetterman due to his support for Israel and votes for Trump nominees, along with his criticism of the party’s progressive faction. There is speculation he may face a formidable primary in 2028.
While some talk has emerged about a potential shift to independent or Republican affiliations, Fetterman emphasizes his commitment to Democratic principles, including LGBTQ+ and reproductive rights. He maintains that he has no intention of switching parties.
Recently, Fetterman drew criticism for a joint fundraising committee with Republican Senator Dave McCormick. This move has sparked concern among Democrats, particularly in battleground districts, though Fetterman described the effort as non-partisan collaboration.
Pennsylvania’s Role as a Political Battleground
Historically, Pennsylvania has swung between Democratic and Republican candidates in presidential elections. Democrats held the state from 1992 to 2012, but Trump claimed it for Republicans in 2016. It returned to Democratic hands in 2020, only to favor Trump again in 2024.
This shift reflects broader trends across Great Lakes states, where rural white voters have increasingly supported Republican candidates. Meanwhile, Democrats have made gains in suburban areas, notably outside Philadelphia.
In 2022, Shapiro and Fetterman were elected amid a strong Democratic turnout, despite expectations favoring Republicans during that midterm election cycle. However, in 2024, Republican successes included Trump’s win and a narrow victory by Dave McCormick over Democratic Senator Bob Casey.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Edward T. Cummins.