Stephen Marche, author of “The Next Civil War,” recently wrote from Toronto about the reshaping of the global order, spurred by actions of the United States under President Trump. The shift, though fraught with challenges, brings a sense of bold determination to former allies of the U.S.
President Trump’s attempts to annex Canada, his threats toward Greenland, and the imposition of tariffs on allies have disrupted traditional alliances. The recent NATO meeting in Ankara saw continual efforts to weaken NATO, yet these moves have been met with strategic resilience by affected nations.
“The threat is stronger than the execution,” a chess principle, aptly describes the geopolitical landscape. While the potential U.S. withdrawal from global leadership was alarming, the actual shift has catalyzed new beginnings.
Canada, in particular, has adapted to these changes. Since the U.S. amplified its trade pressure, Canada has reevaluated its reliance on American markets. A scenario crafted by the Bank of Canada suggested a 25 percent U.S. tariff could slow Canadian GDP growth by 2.4 percentage points—a significant but manageable downturn.
Further research by the Canadian Shield Institute demonstrated that while Canadian exports to the U.S. declined by over 30 billion Canadian dollars last year, increased demand elsewhere nearly compensated for this. Overall exports, including services, actually grew by nearly 7 billion dollars.
Europe, too, is adjusting dynamically. European equities surpassed American ones in 2025 and have continued to climb in 2026. The European Defense Industrial Strategy has bolstered continental military spending, reinforcing the region’s independence.
Europe’s deployment of its anti-coercion instrument, dubbed a trade bazooka, effectively countered early threats from the U.S. concerning Greenland. This tactic underscores Europe’s capacity to deter American pressures.
The declining influence of U.S. military power further exemplifies the changing dynamics. Iran’s regime persisted through a U.S. conflict, even gaining sanctions relief, demonstrating the limits of U.S. military maneuvering. Gulf states have likewise adjusted their perceptions of American security assurances.
At the recent NATO meeting, despite aggressive rhetoric from President Trump, his threats were largely dismissed by leaders like those from Spain and Denmark. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney observed that increased defense spending by NATO members demonstrates awareness of the retreating U.S. military power, rather than submission to pressure.