A recent study by the National Multifamily Housing Council and NYU Urban Lab reveals that closing the current affordable housing gap could take over a century in 38 of the 51 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. This analysis highlights that more than half of all renter households, over 22.4 million, are rent-burdened, meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing.
The Root Causes
The shortage of affordable rental options forces even moderate-to-high income families to pay unaffordable prices. The study emphasizes that extremely low-income households cannot find affordable private housing without subsidies. This issue requires significant reform to address the deficit using existing methods.
St. Louis faces the worst case scenario, where closing the gap could take nearly a millennium. Researchers estimate that relief for cost-burdened renters there might only arrive in 956 years. In contrast, closing the gap in the New York City metro area is estimated to take 169 years. Surprisingly, newly built homes in New York City have managed to better reach low-income renters compared to St. Louis.
Varied Regional Timelines
In only 13 metros could the gap be closed in less than a century with current construction rates. These metros and their timelines are:
- Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina: 45 years
- Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, North Carolina–South Carolina: 45 years
- Cleveland, Ohio: 49 years
- Salt Lake City-Murray, Utah: 50 years
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, New York: 52 years
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minnesota–Wisconsin: 58 years
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington: 74 years
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: 78 years
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas: 88 years
- Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas: 90 years
- Louisville/Jefferson County, Kentucky–Indiana: 91 years
- Denver-Aurora-Centennial, Colorado: 93 years
- Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, Indiana: 98 years
The cities facing the longest estimated times are:
- St. Louis, Missouri–Illinois: 956 years
- Kansas City, Missouri–Kansas: 630 years
- Birmingham, Alabama: 526 years
- Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Michigan: 521 years
- Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, Texas: 505 years
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas: 474 years
- Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, Michigan: 413 years
- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: 406 years
- Columbus, Ohio: 389 years
- Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Massachusetts–New Hampshire: 363 years
Potential Solutions
The high costs of building affordable housing compared to profit discourage private builders. New developments are costly; in some markets, costs have skyrocketed up to 20-fold since the 1970s. Consequently, this has heightened rent prices and diminished new construction projects.
Since the 1970s, the annual average housing production has fallen to 1.4 million units, over 600,000 below the 1970s pace. Researchers suggest broad deregulation at local levels to lower production costs. This strategy could boost new housing projects, creating non-subsidized affordable housing. However, this alone won’t resolve the crisis.
A comprehensive approach includes developing subsidized rental housing, expanding rental assistance, and using 14 million vacant homes. These steps might close the gap within a generation, offering hope for overcoming the housing crisis.